Publication

Energy Sectoral Outlook We are of the view that the outlook for energy sectors, such as electricity, coal, as well as oil and gas, might remain stable in the near to medium terms, amid the volatility of energy commodity prices, which are mostly driven by several factors, including geopolitical as well as energy transition conditions affecting supply and demand. For the last three years, we have seen significant volatility in energy commodity prices, particularly coal. In 2022, coal prices surged to around USD400 per ton, driven by the post-pandemic economic recovery that outpaced the rebound in supply. However, the current coal price has been normalized to USD100 per ton since February 2025 following the recovery of supply and the broader transition toward renewable energy. In addition, we also observed volatility in oil and gas prices, influenced by geopolitical developments and increases in production. ...

Indonesia Healthcare Outlook: Stability amid Growth and Reform We are of the view that the outlook for the healthcare sector will remain stable, with revenue stabilizing after normalization from the pandemic, from which we expect it will book a stable mid-single digit growth in 2025-2027, driven by the demographic changes, shifting illness trends, and growing public awareness of high-quality healthcare services. However, we also believe the sector will face challenges that may dampen earnings growth in 2026.  We anticipate that the healthcare sector will continue to face structural limitations and efficiency pressures that could hamper performance if not addressed consistently. On the other hand, we expect the government and foreign organizations to continue to strengthen the sector through funding, reforms, and regulations that encourage fair access and establish an environment that is more favorable for investment. Nevertheless, the substantial market potential and the strategic role of healthcare in Indonesia’s growth make this sector resilient and promising long-term, sustainable growth. ...

PEFINDO views the outlook for the multifinance industry to remain stable in the near to medium term, supported by a national economic growth projection in the range of 4.9%–5.2%, a declining trend in benchmark interest rates, and the continued development of the electric and hybrid vehicle ecosystem, along with government incentives. In our view, continuing government incentives for electric and hybrid vehicles will further support demand for such vehicles, creating business opportunities for growth  in the multifinance industry. However, the multifinance industry faces several significant challenges, particularly concerning weak consumer purchasing power combined with change of behaviour in purchasing new cars amid the entrants of new brands, putting  pressure on motor vehicle sales, which could lead to a decline in financing receivables for the multifinance industry. A deterioration in asset quality within the industry will likely curb growth, with a stronger focus on resolving problematic debtors. Furthermore, the downward trend in commodity prices, which is mainly due to oversupply and challenging economic conditions, in our view, may have an impact on the limited potential expansion of heavy equipment financing. Although the downward trend in interest rates  may continue in 2025, we view weak consumer purchasing power as the main challenge for the multifinance industry. With subdued purchasing power, we project that the growth of net service assets (NSA) for multifinance companies will be in the range of 6%–8% in 2025, similar to the growth of 8% recorded in 2024. ...